Trump is Signaling a Change on Ukraine. What Does It Mean for Putin?
By Patrick Reevell, ABC News
In a recent address, President Donald Trump indicated a potential shift in his approach to the war in Ukraine, promising a “major statement” on Russia. However, significant uncertainty remains due to a lack of key details.
During a joint announcement with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Trump revealed that other NATO countries have agreed to purchase U.S. weapons on behalf of Ukraine. While specifics about the deal were unclear, Rutte claimed it would allow Ukraine to receive “massive” amounts of military equipment, including ammunition and missiles. European allies would also be able to quickly send equipment from their own depleted stocks to Ukraine, knowing it can be replenished.
If Trump permits a substantial flow of U.S. weapons to Ukraine, this could represent a significant change in policy. Since Trump took office, many in Ukraine and European capitals have viewed this as the best-case scenario, given his previous hostility towards continued U.S. military aid.
This shift would send a different message to Putin. For months, he has perceived that Ukraine’s military support from the U.S. was diminishing under Trump, emboldening him to escalate military actions against Ukraine. If this deal alters that perception, it could change the dynamics in the region.
However, the details matter. The Patriot missile defense systems Trump has authorized for shipment are crucial, especially in light of Russia’s increased air attacks. The real test will be what additional weapons Ukraine receives. Trump indicated that the U.S. would send “various pieces of very sophisticated military equipment,” but as of now, the Pentagon is still finalizing what will be sent.
On Monday, Trump appeared to align more closely with U.S. allies regarding the war. Unlike a previous meeting where he criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump praised Ukraine as “courageous” and lauded the “amazing” unity among European countries in their defense efforts.
Expressing frustration towards Putin, Trump echoed sentiments similar to those of former President Joe Biden, who labeled Putin “a killer.” In the Oval Office with NATO Secretary-General Rutte, Trump threatened tough tariffs against the Kremlin if it does not reach a deal to end the war within 50 days.
Perhaps the most significant aspect of Trump’s recent statements is the shift regarding military aid. After months of suggesting he might cut off military assistance to Ukraine, Trump promised “billions” in weapons now that Europe will finance them. He characterized Putin as a “tough guy” and expressed surprise that his “nice” phone calls with Putin had not yielded positive outcomes.
The key question remains: how seriously will Putin take Trump’s new approach?
The tariff threat remains vague, with some experts doubting its effectiveness. Secondary tariffs aimed at punishing countries importing Russian oil and gas could have a significant impact but are complex and may necessitate a major confrontation with China.
One question that arises is why Trump has provided Putin with a 50-day window before imposing 100% tariffs. This timeframe may align with predictions of how long Russia’s current summer offensive is expected to last. Reports suggest that Putin himself indicated to Trump in a recent call that he plans to intensify efforts over the next 60 days.
The Trump administration may be banking on the hope that Putin will be more inclined to negotiate once Russia’s offensive runs its course, particularly if it does not succeed. Increased sanctions and a surge in military support could gradually push Putin towards genuine negotiations if his summer offensive falters.
However, Putin may doubt Trump’s willingness to maintain a tough stance. Russia analyst Tatiana Stanovaya noted that many in Russia’s elite view Trump’s new strategy as a temporary tactic to test Putin. She predicted that once it becomes clear that such pressure is ineffective, Trump might revert to diplomatic efforts, including pressuring Ukraine to reach a compromise.
In the short term, Putin is likely to continue his aggressive posture, believing he is winning. Only when that perception changes might he consider negotiations.